Mariusz Ganczar beat more than 300 participants from around the world in the WTI competition to win the title of World Top Investor 2009-2010, with gains of 554%.
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We are quickly approaching the end of the WTI edition 2009-2010, and markets lost ground last friday a ''quadruple witching'' options expiration. Is this a pause after the market going up 22 times in 27 sessions, or the beginning of something more important?
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For the first time during this WTI Mariusz Ganczar opened a position in GBP/PLN a highly volatile cross. He went long for GBP 0,25 millions at 4.5300 exactly when market strongly signaled downside risk.
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Mr Ganczar bought pounds, because he regarded it as simply relatively cheap. Size of the exposure was already important to his margin.

Later he increased his position by averaging at lower levels and as a result his exposure went to 2,25 million.

The market crashed within 48 hours below 4.40 and his loss was important reminding once again that rules are to be respected by all even the best like Mariusz Ganczar. Because he had no stop he was unable to liquidate the position, while the market felt very sharply. Choosing to wait for a bounce that seemed likely but did not happen was a second mistake and the position was then closed at 4.24.

Although his account still shows remarkable returns equals 537% he lost nearly 80% of his account value because of volatility and probably because of his impressive list of winning trades that made him lower his concentration. That is the nature of risk, taking responsibility. 

The pound never allowed during the past week to play any corrective rally, and the fall has been dramatic from 1.58 to 1.48 against the USD. New figures concerning UK public debt levels for the month of January contributed to this move. The euro has been flat on Greece concerns. Tomorrow the Australian Reserve Bank is expected to raise 25 basis points.
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Amazingly Mariusz Ganczar continues to acumulate gains that now amount to 3257%. In the second place is now Hanqui Guo already second in the previous WTI edition with gains of 181% and Hristo Grivnev from Bulgaria is third with 172%.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ 100 and S&P 100 moved higher for the week, although it seems there is more clarity about fundamentals. The Weekly leading Index (WLI) provided by ECRI has been declining for the past nine weeks.

"While the U.S. economic expansion is well set to strengthen in the near term, the current easing in WLI growth to a 25-week low suggests that growth will begin to throttle back by mid-year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The fact is wherever we turn, we see a wall of risk. In Europe the consequences of the global financial crisis are very obvious in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal, and the UK is already subject to rumors of default. It´s difficult to see how governement can get their fiscal house in order.

Mariusz Ganczar continues to make gains week after week. He is now above 3100 % (three thousand one hundred percent) in 10 months.
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The market is going through a correction, although the last hour of friday 22th, looked like panic hour.
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The Dow breached its 50 day moving average for the first time since July 2009. In the currencies the psychology now is, the dollar is the lesser of all evils, a change from the end of last year, where investors were leaving the dollar for riskier assets.

For our first WTI news for 2010 World Top Investors, let’s remember 2009 that started with a bust and ended with spectacular gains. Now that the first swing down has happened in the index since the beginning of...
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For our first WTI news for 2010 World Top Investors, let’s remember 2009 that started with a bust and ended with spectacular gains. Now that the first swing down has happened in the index since the beginning of the year maybe it is time for a macro perspective view of 2010.

We talked to WTI participants and the consensus is that the markets could rise another 10% in the first semester, with short-term rates to remain low, but to rise later in the year.

The dollar will have a 3 to 4 months upward bounce, but will resume the trend after. Because none of the participants wanted to reveal preferred trades, we would like to remind all of you some of the already famous outrageous predictions from Saxo Bank:

1. Short in EURTRY and ZARTRY
2. Long German Bunds
3. Long TSE index and short the Nikkey
4. Short march 2011 sugar contract

Historically the last 10 years were a bust. Economic pressures will force creative choices for the next 10 years.

For WTI participants the next 10 years are not important just the next 2 months until the end of the competition. Mariusz Ganczar maintains his phenomenal gains of 2622% followed by Hungarian Szabó Barnabás with 268% and Bulgarian Hristo Grivnev with 205%.

Good trading.

Now that the season for some well-deserved days off, spend with family is over, investors are back to make this a better year in investment.
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Christmas is fast approaching, and participants of the World Top Investor are not very active in the markets
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Last week was all about Dubai and the debt restructuring, that scared investors. Indeed this was a story that remind investors how nations deal with credit and how capacity excesses are still in place.
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Hristo Grivnev lider of the Bulgarian League and third at world level, thinks it makes sense to stay open to this possibility.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved lower for the week while the SP 100 and NASDAQ 100 moved higher. Although we had a short week due to Thanksgiving it was an interesting one due to Dubai Government announcing their decision to restructure Dubai World debt. Dubai is a big enough problem to investors to trigger a risk event. Could this be the beginning of another financial accident? All it would take is this to escalate into a major sovereign default problem.
 
Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Plosser will speak twice this week. On tuesday on the economic outlook and on friday about lessons learned from the financial crisis. FOMC Beige Book is due out on wednesday.
 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP 500 moved higher for the week, while the NASDAQ 100 moved lower. The dollar hold the 1.50 level against the euro, and some participants of the WTI seem to believe the US dollar could rally any time soon. Hristo Grivnev believes this could happen due to a risk event, and the bigger the event the more the dollar could rally.
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What could be the event is the 1 million dollar question but he is not worried about that, he is only worried about the graphs to tell him what to do. Gold finished the week above 1150 a new record high on the way to 1200 usd before the end of the year as many predicted. When money is not backed 100% by gold and there is credir expansion there is always trouble.

The S&P finished up for a second straight week, and the Dow is at 10300. Is this confidence? Maybe not, maybe it is just the fact that a 10 year Treasury note can get you 3.45% yield and 30 years bonds pay 4.39%, which to regular investors look like really bad deals, because they are bound to lose money.
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Many of you are watching with surprise as Mariusz Ganczar live World Top Investor account has grown... and grown... and grown, during the past 7 months. With the close of the market Friday, Mariusz's account, funded with only $5,000 on April 1st, 2009 for the Polish League of World Top Investor Championship, has ballooned to $93,850 . That's an increase of 1877%.
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