News & Press Releases

We have now officially a bull market since the SP is gaining 20% since October. We are entering the last 2 months of the World Top Investor competition and without realizing it the market is in a bull market after all. Volume on the NYSE Euronext is 24% lower compare to < year ago, and the situation in Europe is muddling with IMF warning of a possible 4% contraction, but talking to investors none of them wants to be outright short in the market. Polish and Spanish investors have benefited from this not so sudden bullmarket being the only two countries populating the top 10 because being reasonably long.Most of the remaining participants seemed to miss the early year strength in the markets.The leading contestants made all of their gains at the beginning of the competition but they are not trusting this market believing it is being propped up by central banks.The question now is to know if the fund flows reverse. If they start buying on this strength chasing returns maybe some of the participants willing to be long will have a chance to raise to the top. WTI participant Pavan from India says ''there will be swings in both directions, but do not feel participants will be compelled into some artificially manipulated game they can't understand.'' 

 

 

Maria Helena Coutinho winner of the 2005-2006 WTI competition decided to close the account in the present edition. We asked her a few questions.  

How did you learn to trade?

 

First let me say that I do not believe that no one can teach you how to trade. Someone can teach you a method but much of trading is you conquering your own psychological fears and doubts.

 

So how long you think someone will take to master the art of trading?

 

A lifetime, because it is a continuous process to master how to make money since you are always reminded by the markets that you can lose money. The distance from mastering the markets is always much greater than what you perceive at times. Bottom line you have to put a lot of yourself to succeed a lot of patience and a lot of common sense.

 Is this the reason you have abandon the present edition of WTI?

Yes I was losing over 75% on my account and it was very difficult to recover with the actual volatility. I have always questions to myself, because questions establish the focus of my mind. Is this the right market for me to trade? With all these losses should I take more risks?

 

You are very much into trading psychology aren't you?

 Well if I mention some examples of questions is because questions set up a behavior and my mind was not there anymore, so it was better to stop. 

 

 

We asked him what are his guidelines for risk management?

Hanqui Guo- Risk control is an essential part of trading successfully. The results of a trade might not be good but if effective risk management was applied the trade is always well done.

 What are your rules?

Hanqui Guo- I have a trading plan and I adhere to it. This methodology has been extensively tested and I know what I am willing to lose. I use stop orders to limit my risk exposure and cut losses in fast moving markets. I try to trade with the trend and control my emotions. All traders experience high levels of stress particularly when suffering losses like now. Anxiety, frustration, depression are all part of the trading game. Part of my risk management is the ability to control those emotions in order not to get them take control of my trading.

 What is happening this year for your succession of losses?

Hanqui Guo- The market is behaving irrationally but I stick with my trading plan even if sometimes I am having personal doubts. Obviously my trading plan is not suitable for the actual market behavior but markets keep changing their behavior so I trade defensively now because I already lost 75% of my portfolio.

 Could you have changed anything if you could?

Hanqui Guo- No because I have done everything right according to my strategy: markets are like that and we have to be prepared for them. I always trade thinking about what I can lose as opposed to what I can gain. I fully understand the risks of the trade. I eliminate unnecessary risk when possible, I am selective about the risks to take and I think I act quick to reduce risk exposure. This is what needs to be done when you trade and this is what needs to continue to be done even if one is losing money.

Thank you

 

It's a short week in the US due to Thanksgiving holiday and it´s a painful week in Europe due to the Sovereign crisis. World Top Investors participants live and die by their own decisions and decisions are very difficult in such terrifying economic conditions.A German bond auction failed this week with the German government only attracting bids for only over half the offer. Germany is not seen any more as a refuge of stability in Europe. Ratings agencies are standing by to downgrade European debt. Pawel Olchawa said that ''he expects a world economic recession caused by the international crisis''. He also added that he is convinced markets are now manipulated with investors being influenced, by information.'' ''Who can you trust'' he asked, and continue, ''I can no longer trust the press, the government, the accounting rules, the rule of law, I even doubt my own judgment''. Mr Olchawa only makes a quick one round trade a month for quite a few months to keep his first and second place at the world rankings.This week saw John Rodrigues leader of the Portuguese League go to the 5th place in the World rankings  and the Japanese Toru Ochi enter the top 10.The European debt debacle promises to keep making life difficult for investors. 

 

This week started with an absolute bloodbath in Europe, with markets plunging with major losses and the euro currency getting crushed, in reaction to the news that the EU bailout plan might be headed for a referendum vote in Greece.Markets are now subject to rumors and news by the hour or the minute and it is impossible to know what will happen to the financial markets in the near term. Italian bonds and French bonds surged to the highest ever relative to core German yields. On the global economic front things look very bad also, China Purchasing Managers Index missed the most bearish forecasts and Australian central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, confirming that the global economy is slowing. World Top Investors participants are having a very difficult time to utilize strategies to take advantage of the situation. In a matter of hours the market can destroy the value of the portfolio. Not many are trading, more interested in trying to protect gains. This is not an environment for passive investing, because the markets are having depressive tendencies. There is euphoria and the markets go up then there is pessimism and they go down, but all this is happening almost every hour.

 

 

With the movement known as the ‘’indignados’’ and now the ‘’Occupy Wall Street’’ the western world is now under a wave of global unrest. It’s true that those protesters seem clueless in their anger but nevertheless it is another fact participants of World Top Investor will have to face.

They know too well the other facts: Ongoing Eurozone debt crisis, accelerating talks to recapitalize European banks, constant downgrades by the rating agencies, and the use or not of leverage in the EFSF.  In the markets the VIX is dropping, which means traders are no longer willing to pay a large premium to insure their positions. It also means we can expect less dramatic swings from the market, even if it is difficult to rely on statistics alone to make trading decisions.Last week was a good week for the markets with the Dow adding 500 points over 5 sessions.  Dividend yields of the SP500 is now higher than the 10 year US Treasury bond, which apparently never happened before.Gold is rebounding and Hong Kong the world’s third largest gold center launched gold contracts trading in Yuan. Meanwhile oil has been in a wide sideways range since the August decline. 

The first four accounts in the world rankings of WTI are not trading and just benefitting from the gains accumulated since April. John Rodrigues and Andrzej Czechowski are the only participants at the top 10 steady increasing gains, with John Rodrigues using ETfs and Andrzej forex.

 

The SP 500 plunged 19.6% in the last 5 months, but since August 9 traders at World Top Investor have operated under the assumption that the bottom is in. The stock market has been in consolidation for weeks although with extreme volatility. Traders are now watching 1100 as a very important support. T-bonds closed below the widely followed 20 day moving average for the first time since July a technical sign that the bullish trend is losing momentum. Stop loss orders in bonds have been responsible for some important losses among participants, who have anticipated the seasonal high pattern often establish by bonds in October.Gold plunged to a two and a half month low falling briefly to 1530 just below the 144 day moving average and bouncing above 1600. The dollar is having an inverse correlation with gold.Mr Pawel Olchawa keeps his first two accounts in cash opening and closing a position a month to just comply with the rules but not taking any risks. His gains of 444% and 441,5% are not being challenged, yet by Manuel Huertas from Spain who remains third with gains of 242%.‘’What we are seeing in the markets right now is simple volatility related to the soap opera that has become the European crisis’’. Said John Rodrigues leader of the Portuguese League and 8^th on the world ranking. John Rodrigues is a World Top Investor veteran having won the Portuguese League in 2008-2009.

 

 

The week of September 16th was a quadruple witching, with stock futures, stock options, stock futures and stock index options all expiring. It was also the week when the ECB and the FED announced they would flood the European banks with dollars. The fact is that after starting the week with mixed emotions, the DAX Index which hit a two year low on Monday closed the week up more than 7%. The euro was below 1.36 on Monday ends the week at 1.38 and gold after falling below 1.800 usd ended the week above.Mr. Pawel Olchawa almost stopped trading on his leading account but is slowly growing his other accounts and as now 5 accounts among the top 10.This continues to be a very difficult year for investors reflected on the WTI participants.Next week we can expect more volatility. Moody's downgraded two of the big French banks and even if the announcement had no effect on the markets it could still have, now that quadruple witching is gone and European Finance ministers in Poland have not reached any major decisions.Troubles in Europe seem to have just began and central bankers are committed to supplying liquidity in the market. Investors watch out.

 

August has not been the typical Holiday month. The European sovereign crisis is creating tensions in the interbank market, and Spanish Italian and French banks are now seeing wider CDS. The tensions are also visible on the social front with riots in London and spontaneous incidents of group violence in Chicago Cleveland Philadelphia New York Kansas City. Curfews have been imposed to under 18 in Philadelphia and Kansas City. In the markets many indexes are at two year lows while gold is at an all time high. The second week of August saw some extraordinary volatility in the markets with the Dow Industrial experiencing 4 straight daily 400 point closing swings.The aggressiveness and leverage employed by participants in the markets made them vulnerable to forced liquidation orders.Only participants without positions during August, manage to keep their gains, all the other participants were forced to control their losses.The safety trade is back on.  

 

The Dow Jones and the SP500 close lower on the month of July and spiked in August below their June lows. These are important levels. In the currency markets the yen dropped the most since 2008 against the dollar with an intervention of 126 billion usd following Switzerland in seeking to stop appreciating exchange rates. The global debt crisis seems to be escalating and evolving into a currency crisis. The USA failed to impressed with the debt-ceiling agreement and investors are starting to think that even the USA is not exempt from a debt crisis. It is in this environment that investors at World Top Investor competition need to operate, with no big changes at the top of the ranking. Pawel Olchawa retains the first and second place, and Manuel Huertas keeps his third position.

 

This week world markets have fallen back with nerves on edge over debt crisis in Europe. Today traders are waiting banking stress results in Europe. Banks were during the week the heaviest faller sector. In the USA the debt limit negoctiations between President Obama and Congressional leaders seem to be at a temporary stop, with no decision expected soon. At the World Top Investor competition nothing changed from last week. Pawel Olchawa keeps first and second place now followed by the Spanish Manuel Huertas. Summer is always a poor time for trading, but the sovereign subprime crisis in Europe is adding to the problem.

 

It was a dramatic 2 weeks for Helder Jorge Silva with a few bad trades in oil and US index, making him drop from first to third place in the world rankings. Paweł Olchawa from Poland is now confortably in the lead with two accounts in first and second places trading only forex.
Last week was a surprise week in the markets, after an agreement was reach with Grece. Hot money was flowing into stocks and out of gold. With gold breaking below 1500 usd and going to a new six week low at 1480, while the Dow who plunged 165 points during a brief span last week, recovered more than 500, to close the week at 12582. After seven weeks of declines, the SP500 has seen the largest weekly surge since March 2009.
All based on a barring vote in Greece and a French plan to rollover Greek debt. The reaction in the markets shows that it is Europe's banks and policy makers that are being rescued and not Grece. Meanwhile the Greek story will fade into the background until the next time.